Out at the peak

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

It's been a year for the Yeager Dr, SR listing

This Santa Rosa house just cannot get sold. It's been following the market with price for over a year now and hasn't been able to close escrow. This is either the 3rd or 4th time that it has been in escrow. Will it pull through?

The price reduction has been 25% or nearly $100K since the 2008 listing. The price reduction has been 36.5% or $164K since the last sale in 2004.

Is it time to buy yet? In my opinion, no. Wait for all foreclosures from the Alt-A/Option-ARM resets to follow through. There are many people who haven't paid their mortgage for over 6 months and the bank hasn't filed for foreclosure yet.

Banks are also giving incentives (cash) to people who leave their property without damage. Banks are renting out their foreclosures so they don't have to realize their loss and/or waiting for a good time to sell. They could be renting those properties for awhile.

Won't the government force banks to renegotiate loans with delinquent borrowers? There has been little success with this. A large portion of those renegotiations just default again. Refinancing can only help a few people now. Even though rates are super low now, anyone who bought in California in the last 7 years (estimate; give or take) has no equity for traditional refinancing.

2012 seems to be the magic year of when a bottom might occur (in California). When we do hit the bottom, there is no rush. Housing should start tracking inflation at that time and not repeat the rocketship increases for the rest of our lifetimes.
A great read on why this is.


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