Out at the peak

Saturday, December 31, 2005

Predictions for 2006

Ben Jones had a post on future predictions. This is what I put down.

House prices 2006 [national, bubbles]
Q1: +1%, -3% ("little air")
Q2: -1%, -5% ("> normal inventory")
Q3: -3%, -6% ("ARMs, affordability")
Q4: -4%, -7% ("Seasonal")

US Dollar 2006
Q1: +2% (needless rally) I'm glad I'm wrong so far, USD has been weak thus far
Q2: -4% (Euro oil trade)
Q3: -2% (foreign money pouring)
Q4: -5% (foreign can't fund enough)

I believe 2007 will be a scary and true panic year especially with many more ARMs resetting. 2006 will be considered uncomfortable, and 2005 and before will be the good ol' times.

2 Comments:

  • Hey Peak! Was looking at your site and saw you had attached a must-read link to my Blog (thanks!). Anyway, the link is dead. Use the following: http://economicrot.blogspot.com/

    BTW, I've updated it just a bit.

    By Blogger contrarian2day, at 10:40 PM  

  • Thanks for the heads up. I've updated the template.

    By Blogger Out at the peak, at 11:35 AM  

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