Out at the peak

Saturday, November 12, 2005

Good bye September 2005

History will show that the peak of the 21st century Housing Bubble ended in September 2005.
I am putting my money where my mouth is. I sold my house and am now shorting real estate stocks. I also am acquiring foreign currencies to hedge against the USD when it starts to decline. None of this will start to be profitable until sometime in the first half of 2006 so my position is a little early, but at least it is set.

The debate rages on between House Heads and Bubble Heads. House Heads usually refer to Bubble Heads as bitter renters that could never afford their lifestyle (of debt). At least in my case, I can say I've been on both sides of story.

Bubble Heads have been around for years calling for the decline in real estate prices. However, the market pressures for a downward spiral have been absent until of late.

These have been my past positions:
  • 1998-Q2 2004 buy
  • Q3 2004-Q2 2005 hold
  • Q3 2005-present sell
I know prices started going up in 1995, but I was young and naive. So I missed the boat the first three years. It only really mattered over the last five years.


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